Election 2026: What happens next for property investors?

1. No, we did not get a good turnout. Wrong. 
2. The strategic voting campaigns appear to have worked. Right. 
3. Some big-name MPs lost their seats, but Bish didn’t get back. Half right. 
4. The sun came up. Right. Safe bet. We’ll have to see if I’m right on the economy. 
5. I’ll add in a fifth: I’ve been saying Opportunity was the one to keep an eye on, that they’d capture the ‘plague on all of you’ vote. They got over the threshold and are now an interesting addition to parliament. Right. 

I’ll give myself 50% – about the same as a random pick! That’s elections for you. We won’t know who will be in government until at least December, but let’s have a look at what we know and don’t know right now and how that could affect housing. 

With Bishop gone, we’ve lost a strong advocate for housing and the private rental sector, but also the biggest advocate for increasing housing supply. That could potentially lead to a change in approach if the coalition is back in government, but I don’t think a wholesale change in direction. 

Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka is still in parliament, as are all the other housing spokespeople. For now, we are largely on familiar ground, but that could change once a new government is formed. It’s not a given that Potaka will just slot into the lead housing role, he has other skills that could fit different roles. 

With National losing so many senior Ministers and ACT and NZ First having a larger presence, there will have to be some ministerial changes – if they’re in government. 

There are three options for the next government. The current coalition holds on to govern on their own. The left bloc wins enough from the special votes to govern alone. Neither side wins enough, so must govern with Opportunity. Let’s look at those options. 

There are about 400,000 special votes to be counted. That’s a third less than in 2023 when there were over 600,000 specials and five electorate results changed. Fewer, but still enough for the two closest seats, Wairarapa and Hamilton East, to flip to Labour. 

Losing two electorate seats would leave the coalition with 65, but still enough to govern alone because the total number of MPs would also fall by two, from 131 to 129. That’s because of the overhang. 

There does not appear to be a similar path for the left bloc to govern alone. There are all sorts of permutations for how the party vote could change because of special votes, which could boost either side, but it would take an unfeasibly large swing for Labour, Greens and TPM to be able to muster enough seats to govern alone. 

That then leaves one other possibility, which is either side governing with support from Opportunity. It looks more likely that the right-bloc could do that, but there are scenarios where the left bloc could do it. Which means… 

Their decision this election will determine their fate in the next. Remember how NZ First was wiped out in 2020 after choosing to go with Labour in 2017, rather than with National, the largest party? A similar fate could await Opportunity if they make the wrong move this time. 

The first biggest thing is that Opportunity will be a moderating influence whichever way they go. They will pull toward the centre, and they have to if they are to survive. 

I am confident that they won’t go with the left if all that would do is create a hung parliament. Opportunity would be wiped out. The NZ public want politicians to get on with fixing things, and don’t want another election. 

I’m not sure they would go with the left if the government had a small, 1 or 2 seat majority. That’s high risk given the ructions we saw in TPM and the Greens last term – though being in government does focus the mind on behaving well, so I wouldn’t rule it out entirely. 

Going right also has dangers, but I think the risk is less. They won’t want to be associated with policies like abolishing the Waitangi Tribunal, as this would give them much less chance of attracting left-leaning voters next time. However, being able to stop those sorts of policies would give them a big win and a point of difference with the Greens. Something Quilae Wong pointed out on the campaign. 

Their big sticking point will be if they stick to their five bottom lines religiously. Banning bottom trawling, for example, will be strongly opposed by NZ First and could cause big fights. But pushing for a 10-year cross-party plan for health would be a significant achievement, could easily be supported by the other coalition parties and would get broad public support. 

I think there’s a way forward for Opportunity to work with the coalition, particularly if they focus on big picture areas which will have popular support like health, education, KiwiSaver, jobs and most of all, cost of living. If they can stop a few of what the left sees as extreme policies, then they will be well set for 2029. 

I think they could do all of that with a confidence and supply agreement with the coalition, who could then govern even if they were a minority. Providing confidence and supply would give the Opportunity team time to learn, grow into the role of being MPs and providing a moderating influence, without being fully associated with the government. 

Assuming I’m correct and the right bloc get in, that will mean business as usual in the property sector. Opportunity might push for changes to Healthy Homes and help to get solar into rentals, but these are not big changes. They already support reforms to make it faster, easier and cheaper to build houses, like the RMA changes and (to an extent) the proposed local government reform. 

Opportunity also has policy which is focussed on delivering economic growth, which again would align well with the coalition. It would do them no harm in the eyes of voters to be associated with higher economic growth and lower unemployment, both of which look increasingly likely in 2027. 

I think no matter what happens, the next government will require more collaboration and cooperation between parties. Big reforms will be less likely unless they are in areas where there is consensus for the need for change, but I also think that there is a mood among the public and politicians for more cross-party agreement on the big issues. 

My big take out from this election is that as a country we are evenly split across the parties, and not that far apart on the issues. There are extremes, but there’s a big middle ground. If you look at Labour’s policies this election, it wasn’t a radical platform or a total change of direction. So life will carry on much as it always has. 

While I won’t be making any major financial decisions until after the result becomes clear – Labour’s CGT still worries me – I won’t be making any significant changes to my financial strategy either. I just don’t think things in NZ will change that much.