Weekly Media Links

Will the OCR hold? Plus two political events every property investor should know about

This week’s update looks ahead to a big week for property investors. We cover the upcoming Official Cash Rate decision and what economists are expecting, highlight two political events where investors can hear directly from decision-makers, and explore whether New Zealand’s changing property market means it’s time to rethink tax policy. If capital gains are no longer driving the market, should the rules for landlords change too?

written by Matt Ball

6 July 2026

This week in 60 seconds

OCR decision this Wednesday: All eyes are on the Reserve Bank as economists are split on whether the Official Cash Rate will hold or rise.
Political panel in Wellington: Housing Minister Chris Bishop joins a cross-party discussion on housing policy this Thursday.
Ballot Box Economics: Auckland Property Investors Association’s strategy conference is coming up, with an exclusive 20% discount for Media Links subscribers.
Has the property market changed for good? We look at whether a flatter housing market means it’s time to rethink tax policies affecting property investors.
Your thoughts: If speculation is no longer the issue, what policy changes would help create a stronger rental housing market?

This week's stories in detail

Advocacy in Action

Going local this week, with two political forums happening, one in Wellington on Thursday the 9th (Matariki Eve), and the other in Auckland on July 17th.

Housing Minister speaking in Wellington

In Wellington, this Thursday 9 July, WPIA are holding a political panel, which has attracted some political heavyweights – Housing Minister Chris Bishop has just confirmed his attendance.

This is a great opportunity for Wellington property investors to hear from key decisionmakers and wannabe decision makers across the political divide. Some of the politicians attending will shape housing policy for the next three years, and like it or not, that affects you.

I’ll be coming down to MC the event and we’ll traverse the big national issues affecting housing, including planning, tax, infrastructure and RTA changes, as well as local issues affecting Wellington.

Entry is free for members, only $15 for non-members. Details at this link.

In Auckland the following week, APIA are holding a one-day strategy conference called Ballot Box Economics, which recognises that politics has an outsize impact on our sector, and aims to give attendees the tools to navigate policy and succeed regardless.

It’s a concentrated, no-nonsense day in which you’ll hear directly from leading voices in economics, lending, tax, policy, media, risk and property management, and walk out with a concrete 12–24-month plan worth far more than the ticket price.

Better still, APIA are offering a 20% discount for Media Links subscribers. Click here and get ready to rumble.

Interest rates

All eyes on Wednesday’s OCR decision

The OCR announcement will drop at 2pm this Wednesday, and an increasing number of economists are calling for the rate to stay the same and/or predicting no change. For example, Shamubeel Eaqub was pretty strong in saying it was the wrong move to hike the OCR now. He’s not alone.

Of the big five, ANZ & BNZ are predicting a hike, while KiwiBank, ASB & Westpac think the RB will hold. Speaking on a recent Sharesies podcast, ‘Shared Lunch’, Jarrod said:

“We should be looking through this inflation. … We all expect inflation to fall to 2% next year. … Inflation will be back at 2. We’ll be in a much better situation if the economy is growing. Hiking now is just going to hurt businesses and households who are already hurting.”

Talking about the economy he added: “So, let it grow. Let’s get out of this recession, for god’s sake.” It’s interesting that he talked about inflation being at around 2% next year – would be great for the economy if that happens. Good podcast, worth a listen.

With so many calling for or predicting no rate rise, and retail interest rates falling slightly, it’s going to be interesting to see what the RB does. They don’t like to surprise the markets, and an increase when most expect a hold could flick retail mortgage interest rates back up again. Keep an eye out on Wednesday.

If the property market really has changed, policy change is needed

When the market changes, policy should too

You may remember Liam Dann’s article a few weeks back which we highlighted here, which showed that we’re heading for the longest property slump on record (nationally – local hot-spots excepted). Plenty of others are saying the same, or similar. Take this article from Dan Brunskill in The Spinoff, talking about the potential for flat house prices for well over a decade.

I think we need a bit more data and time to see if there really has been a permanent change, or a shift to a new housing paradigm, a market that doesn’t have massive spikes and constantly high capital gains. But if things have changed, then it’s time to change policy settings.

Many existing tax settings and proposed tax policies are aimed at targeting property investors, making it less attractive to speculate on house prices or dampen down the housing market. If the market’s flat, we don’t need these policies. In fact, the opposite: these policies are actively damaging the private rental sector. Making it harder to make a profit, making it harder to get into the industry, and over time reducing the number of rentals available.

Think policies like ring-fencing, not being able to claim depreciation, capital gains tax and interest deductibility. We need to push hard to stop the first two ever becoming a reality, and harder still to get ring-fencing removed and depreciation restored. The government should also look at using the tax system as more of a carrot, and less of a stick when it comes to rental accommodation providers.

Why not have positive policy, for example allowing landlords who upgrade existing properties to make them warmer and dryer to expense that cost in the first year? Linking a policy like that with the removal of ring-fencing would allow the cost to be offset in the first year and would lower the cost hurdle that many landlords face when making upgrades like installing double-glazing.

What do you think? Good idea? Are there other changes that could be made which will deliver a better, stronger rental housing market?

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