Election 2026: what could the next government mean for property investors?
With the election approaching, housing and rental policy is firmly back on the political agenda. But beyond the headlines, what could the different policies actually mean for landlords, tenants and the wider housing market?
NZPIF’s Matt Ball joined Property Brokers General Manager David Faulkner for a wide-ranging discussion about the election, tax, housing supply and what property investors should be watching over the coming months.
This wasn’t a discussion about who you should vote for. It was about understanding what’s being proposed and thinking through the practical consequences for property investors.
Some of the big questions they tackled
- What could a return of interest deductibility restrictions mean?
Matt discusses the potential impact on highly leveraged rental property owners, including the pressure it could place on cash flow, rents, maintenance and decisions about whether to hold or sell. - How would Labour’s proposed capital gains tax work?
The conversation looks at how properties could be valued, how gains and losses would be calculated, and Matt’s concerns about the proposal not being indexed for inflation. - What would The Opportunities Party mean for property investors?
Matt considers its proposed land tax alongside the Citizens’ Income, and the increasingly interesting role the party could play in determining the shape of the next government. - Could the election result change tenancy law again?
Depending on the make-up of the next government, Matt discusses the possibility of further changes to the Residential Tenancies Act, including 90-day no-cause terminations and other tenancy settings. - Is there anything positive for rental property owners in Labour’s tax proposals?
Yes. Matt gives credit to Labour’s proposed small-business tax policy, which he says would apply to residential rental businesses and could allow eligible expenditure of up to $10,000 to be expensed in the first year rather than depreciated over time. - Why could housing supply be the bigger long-term story?
The discussion moves beyond election-year tax policy to RMA reform, consenting, infrastructure, land supply and other changes designed to make housing easier and cheaper to build. Matt argues these changes could have a significant long-term effect on both rental supply and capital growth.
A changing investment environment
One of the bigger themes to come out of the conversation is that property investment may need to be approached differently in the years ahead.
With governments across the political spectrum focused on increasing housing supply, Matt cautions investors against assuming the strong capital gains of previous decades will simply continue. Instead, he sees rental property becoming increasingly focused on the quality of the accommodation and service being provided.
That raises some interesting questions for investors.
What happens to your numbers if tax settings change? Are you relying on capital growth to make an investment work? Could easier development rules create opportunities on property you already own? And as rental supply changes, what will make tenants choose your property over another?
There are plenty more questions covered in the conversation, including what could happen if more landlords decide to sell, the implications for first-home buyers, and why investors with little or no debt could find themselves in a very different position from highly leveraged owners.
If you own rental property, are thinking about buying, or simply want a clearer picture of the housing policies being discussed ahead of the election, the full conversation is well worth a listen.