by Matt Ball – PR & Advocacy Manager
Housing market – feeling what?
This morning, I did that thing where you listen to two radio shows simultaneously and get two totally different takes on the same topic. Hosking on ZB was talking about the QV numbers out today and saw a bit of confidence returning to the market, while at the same time Radio NZ was giving a gloomier take.
I think I’ll go with Interest.co.nz which had a more straight down the middle viewpoint. A bit up, a bit down: “The housing market is still softening, but doing so at a slowing pace with signs of tentative confidence beginning to surface,” according to QV.
REINZ also released their May numbers this week, and they told a similar story: median price and house price index declined for the month. Volumes are good, but it’s still a buyer’s market and house prices are struggling.
Rental market
Over on the rental market, this story from RNZ certainly reflects the feedback I’m getting from PIAs around the country: rents are struggling, no relief in sight. According to Realestate.co.nz, renters are on average $1,400 a year better off than last year.
According to Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan, “Rental growth could remain subdued for another 12-18 months.” Limiting factors include less migration and restrained incomes, as well as high supply of rental properties, but if the economy picks up and the labour market begins to recover “it should help limit some of the downward pressure on rents that we have seen over the last year.“
He also noted that lower mortgage rates and the reversal of Labour’s less favourable tax rules around investment property were likely to limit the upward pressure on rents. My emphasis. This is an observation politicians around the country should heed.
Politics
With rents and house prices subdued and first home buyers seemingly doing quite well, housing has dropped off the list of top ten of major voting issues in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll. A year ago, housing was sixth, with 15% of respondents listing it as a concern. This is good news and should reduce this area’s attractiveness as a political football.
The voting intentions part of the poll was also interesting, with Labour increasing vote share to become the largest party, but with paths to power for both centre-right and centre-left, depending on who NZ First chooses to go with. This puts Winston Peters’ declaration that he won’t work with Labour under Chris Hipkins into an interesting light.
Especially when you consider that neither major party leader seems to be particularly popular with the voters. Plenty of interesting times to come before election 2026.
Spreading the word
A core part of our work in the Federation and at Associations around the country is getting out and about to talk to as many investors as possible about the work we do and the issues that matter.
We do that through face-to-face meetings and by being in the media as you know, but also by appearing in new media where possible. Recently both Sarina Gibbon from APIA and I have been on The Alternative Property Management Show, a lively industry podcast hosted by David Faulkner from Property Brokers.
You can listen to Sarina’s discussion here, and I’ll post mine next week. Interested to know what you think.